Market Analysis: Equipment Revenues Q1 2026
They don't make it easy...
US carriers generated $15.7bn in equipment revenue in Q1 2026 at a combined subsidy of $2.6bn, up 29.2% YoY | Combined revenue up 7.6% across T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon, moderating from Q4's launch peak | Assurant Devices Serviced 7.4m, up 32.1% YoY, the first Q1 break above the multi-year declining trend | ATRenew net product revenue RMB 5,730m, up 34.4% YoY on 10.8m units transacted | UK like-for-like market declined 8.4% in Q1; BT Consumer now the deeper contraction at -11.1%, VMO2 -4.1% | Mature Western European core sending less hardware through carrier channels, with Telefónica Deutschland -15.2% and Vodafone Germany cited by management as the driver of group decline | Spain, Austria and the smaller eastern European markets continue to generate growth | iPhone 17 cycle was an ASP story, not a volume one; 82% of US iPhone sales were current models, the highest March quarter WARP on record at $1,042. Full analysis also available as a downloadable report at reports.finsur.co.uk
Right. After running a gastrically challenging 50 miler last weekend, I was hoping for a simple tap in by writing up the Q1 Equipment Revenue tracker this week. All the major western operators, except BT had filed accounts by the end of last week, Apple, Assurant and Counterpoint had posted some useful contextual data and I’d be resting the legs. Well, after battling my way through no less than ten restatements, it turns out I’d rather have been halfway back up Box Hill’s steps reconsidering my life choices. Best laid plans.
Q1 2026 In Brief
As I explained in the last Equipment Revenue briefing, not everyone decided to take part in the Q4 2025 iPhone17 hype-cycle as it concentrated firmly in the US and China and generally flew past most of Western Europe. Q1 2026 is usually the post-iPhone-peak quarter and the Samsung Galaxy launch quarter which occupy a cleanly different position in the cycle from the last piece.
Q1 was not so usual. Apple’s iPhone revenue of $56,994m in Q1 2026 was up 21.7% on Q1 20251. Every one of Apple’s regions grew double digits year-on-year with Greater China (Apple’s pacifying moniker, not mine), up 28.1%, the strongest regional gain of the lot. Samsung’s mobile (MX division) revenue fared less well at KRW 37.5 trillion, up 4% on Q1 2025 although the calendar caveat of a later launch will have impacted the comparison2. Omdia’s unit read of 65.4 million shipments, up 8% year-on-year, is probably the cleaner cycle indicator. Counterpoint reported global smartphone revenues up 8% YoY in Q1 2026 despite overall shipment slowdown with Apple growing the fastest and premium demand the cited driver as the iPhone17 became the global best-selling smartphone of the quarter at 6% of all sales34. The gap between the two main protagonists is material, both operating under the same memory pressures with an asymmetric outcome: Apple Products gross margin expanded to 38.7% whilst the Samsung MX/NW operating margin compressed from 11.6% to 7.3% as Apple passed the cost through and Samsung appeared to absorb it.
The three main US carriers grew combined equipment revenue 7.6% year-on-year and the combined cost of equipment, what the carriers paid for those devices grew 10.2%. The gap, the combined effective equipment subsidy of $2.6bn for the quarter, was up 29.2% on Q1 2025, which is reflected in CIRP’s US-WARP of $1,042 in Q1 2026, the highest March quarter on record and up from $971 in Q1 20255. Further, 82% of US iPhone sales in the quarter were current iPhone 17 models6, a record share, highlighting how premium mix and pricing continue to drive the equipment line more than volume.
Two of the major aftermarket specialists landed Q1 2026 results that point to a busy period for downstream operators. Assurant’s Devices Serviced metric, the broadest single read on US-anchored throughput, came in at 7.4m units, up 32.1% YoY7 and in China, ATRenew posted net product revenue of RMB 5,730m, up 34.4% YoY on 10.8m products transacted, up 13.7%, with the cost of those devices paid into Chinese consumer and partner hands rising 33.2% to RMB 4,817m8. Useful indicators, but they both had their own reasons for running faster than carrier channel growth. The Q4 framing that the US carriers paid heavily, appears to still be the case…
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North America: The combined subsidy widened 29.2% YoY but the burden is unevenly distributed across the three US carriers, and the efficiency ranking does not line up with the subsidy ranking. Canada split three ways on the same handset cycle.
UK: The Q4 positioning has reversed, with one operator now the deeper contraction. The post-launch fade is steeper this cycle, and a longer-running channel displacement sits underneath the carrier-level decline.
Europe: Three of the largest operators have narrowed their equipment disclosure in a single quarter. The two-speed pattern sharpens, with a clear split between the mature Western European core and the earlier-cycle markets.
Alternatively, the report is available here for download in pdf format.